See also How to Win Poker Tournaments
The Fundamental Theorem of Sit'n Go High-Blind Play.
Without further ado:
Never allow yourself to get blinded out.
Let us be more specific. If you have a stack between 3 to 5BB, and you let the blinds hit you rather than make a move earlier, then you have broken the cardinal rule and allowed yourself to be blinded out.
The underlying principle behind this concept is that the minimum stack you must have for a reasonable chance to steal the blinds without a fight is 3BB. Even this is a low number, since the big blind must pay 2BB to match your raise with a pot of 4.5BB. He is therefore getting better than 2-to-1, and is probably correct to call with any two cards from a cEV perspective.
Of course, you cannot assume your opponents will play rationally. Some will fold a marginal hand to an all-in raise of 2BB (a clear error, as discussed below), while others will call a 6BB push with a weak jack-high. As an empirical assumption then, you might get everyone to fold with 3BB, but probably not with less.
This minimum-fold threshold is dependent not only on the player(s) being pushed upon, but also on the level of the blinds.
For example, if you suffer a crippling loss during t20-t40, it will be very difficult to steal the blinds with a stack less than around t200 (5BB). However, a short-stacked big blind may well fold to a raise of t800 to t900 during t200-t$400 bubble play. So always try to determine how large a stack you must have to maintain blind-stealing power at your particular table and game stage. If this stack size is different from 3BB, adjust accordingly.
Continuing with the 3BB assumption, it follows that with a stack over 5BB you can let the blinds hit you and still conceivably steal the following orbit. With under 3BB, you are already blinded out. And with 3 to 5BB, you must act.
Let us assume that anyone with a hand in the top fifth of starting hands will call your steal-raise of 3 to 5BB. Then if you were to blindly push two cards dealt you, you would win 36 percent of those times you were called. Read this again: A random hand will win more often than once in three, on average, against a legimimate hand. Those are about the same odds as completing an open-ended straight draw or flush draw after the flop - not so bad.
Indeed, if you make such a blind all-in, it is not a bluff, rather a semi-bluff. This is because:
- Your opponent(s) may fold.
- Your hand might actually be the favorite heading into the flop. (You may be pushing with after all).
- If you are an underdog, you may always improve to beat your opponent over the next five cards (which, as stated above, you will do on average more than one-third of the time).
The reason that two random cards win so often over much better hands is that high cards significantly outnumber pairs.
Therefore the common worst-case scenario is pushing with two low cards and getting called by two high cards. But even in this case, the high cards are only about a 2-to-1 favorite. The cases where you are facing an overpair are roughly offset by those times your in-the-dark push is with a hand that is a favorite or only a slight underdog.
