See also
This is one of the keys to successful shorthanded play. Some players are just too tricky for their own good, or have just one gear: the everbluffing and bullying loose-aggressive players. It is important to also change gears every once in a while by giving your opponents a break sometimes, by slowing down a little bit, or by playing a hand in a straightforward and obvious manner rather than the tricky manner that people might expect from you. By slowing down from time to time, you want to make sure that your bets and raises stay credible enough to warrant respect. And this is important: you want to steal more than your fair share of pots, but if you go after almost every pot you play people will start using this pattern of play against you.
The key is to always analyze the current state of mind that your opponent (s) may have. Probably, you will be multitabling and face some of your opponents in multiple games. So, you should have a good clue as to how they are running, and whether or not they may be on the verge of tilt. (For this reason, you should always try to keep open as many tables as possible, especially bigger games than yours that one of your opponents may be playing in. If he loses a big pot in the bigger game, good chance that he will suddenly get more active in your game - meaning you should try to steal less, bluff less and check-)call more to induce bluffs.)
Just as important is balancing your tricky moves with straightforward play.
Example:
You hold A
-5
-4-3
in the big blind in a three-way pot. After it got checked around on the flop K-6-2, you have taken a stab at the pot after the turn 10, betting two-thirds of the pot. The button, who has been the preflop minraiser, now raises you full pot. You know this player pretty well, and he is not particularly tricky. So, you know that this 10 had definitely
helped him, his most logical hands being:
- A set of 10s.
- Top two pair, possibly with a straight draw or a non-nut flush draw to go with it.
- (Less likely) a slowplayed set of kings.
- (Less likely) a semi-bluff with a A-Q-J-x wrap, possibly with a flush draw to go with it.
- (Less likely) a combination hand like A-A-Q-9 for an overpair + gutshot, that wants to bet you off a better hand and/or secure himself of a free showdown.
Having played against this opponent many times, you decide to make a tricky play. The money being quite deep with room for exactly one pot-sized bet after you call, you decide that calling this raise could indeed be worth it because of an interesting combination of getting paid off when you hit, and the possibility for successful bluffs if you don’t. All in all, your plan for the river looks like this:
- With any non-pairing heart except the 5, 4 and 3. Bluffing pot or close to it (in case of an all-in) with the bare A. Assuming your opponent respects your play, he will realize that for you to call a pot-sized raise OOP (out of position) with just one card to come, you need to have a premium draw - the nut flush draw almost certainly being part of it. So, even if he would also have made a queen-or jack-high flush on the river, he could still fold a decent percentage of the time (assuming of course that your read on his play and on the respect that he has for your play is correct).
- With the 5, 4 and 3. Bet small, say between 30% and 40% of the pot, with your straight. The goals are hoping to induce a call from two pair or a set because of this discount, while at the same time trying to save money if the opponent has a non-nut flush that he will not lay down (that also would not have folded against a full-pot bet).
- With any non-heart 5, 4 or 3. Again betting pot or close to it, this time for value. These cards will look like relative blanks to your opponent, and your big bet has all the signs of a busted straight or flush draw. So, with hands like K-10-x-x or better you can expect him to pay you off, and he might even make a hero call with the A-A-Q-9, as he won’t expect you to call a pot-sized raise OOP with low straight cards when higher straight draws are available. He may fear the combo nut flush draw + small straight cards once you bet on the river, but given the high amount of uncertainty and high number of possible busted draws, you can expect to get called liberally - even by a guy who respects you.
- With any non-heart 8 or 7. Bluff about 60% of the time, representing the 9–8–7-x combo, the other times just check and fold.
- With any non-heart A, Q, J or 9. Bluff slightly less often, ranging from 40% of the time for the nine to about 20% of the time for the A. (As this ace is a card that could actually have helped his hand not just through the Q-J combo, but also through the A-A-x-x combos and even the A-K-10-x combo - all likely holdings, given your opponent’s preflop and flop actions. Taking into account that players tend to fear straights less than flushes, your opponent will also tend to make a stand with a set here, meaning that basically the only hands that will almost always fold against this river bluff would be K-10-x-x or worse).
- With all cards that pair the board. Simply check and fold.
So, you have decided to make your loose OOP call because of the combination of the likelihood of getting paid off handsomely if you hit, mostly because of the surprise value of your hidden draw, and the many excellent bluffing cards on the river that seem to have hit when in reality they have not.
But in order to stay credible and believable, and to avoid that your playing pattern “call raise OOP on turn/then bet river once the nuts changes” doesn’t contain too many bluffs, you should also play your hands straightforwardly in similar situations. Because if your opponent knows that you will only call from out of position in this spot with a lot of bluffing rights and with draws that have surprise value, he will start respecting your bluff bets less from the more “obvious” draws like the large straight draws and the flush draws that could have materialized. In other words: he might start calling your pot bet with hands as weak as just top two pair if he realizes that the bare A will account to a large percentage of your river bets.
In order to avoid this, you should sometimes just play your big draws straightforwardly. Let’s say that in this exact same spot, with the same K-6-2-10 board, the same opponent and the same betting sequence, your hand is A-Q-J-3 this time, rather than the A-5-4-3 from before. In other words: this time you do actually have the nut flush draw, with a powerful wrap to go with it. All in all, a premium draw, but unfortunately not a very hidden one. If you call this raise from OOP and then complete your draw on the river, your opponent may read you for the exact hand you have - and thus you may not get paid off very often if you hit.
Still, to balance your play it is important to also play your hands in a straightforward and obvious manner at times. While usually with a draw this big, I would have a tendency to just reraise pot on the turn as a semi-bluff (thinking that even if I get called, I may still have around 40% equity even with just one card to come), in this situation it may not be correct. Given the premium draw that I have (including the crucial A, Q and J), it has become even less likely than before that my opponent is pushing a draw here. So, the chances of him having K-10-x-x with some extras or even 10–10-x-x go up even further - and heads up on the turn, after no action on the flop, there is just no way these hands can be folded, not even against a player who demands respect. So, in this case, it can be worth it sometimes to make a meek call on the turn, and then simply go for the obvious river bet if I hit and just give up if I don’t. Looking at just this one hand, this is of course a clearly +EV play, because of the many outs that I have, and given that I still have at least a little bit of implied odds - specially the non-heart Q, J and 9 should still get paid off rather frequently. But perhaps more importantly - looking at thebroader picture - sometimes playing exactly in line with my hand strength is a good way to balance my play, and to avoid toomuch trickiness.
What’s more, if my timing is good I will make sure that I first bluff out my opponent with the tricky play from before, and that once my opponent becomes a bit suspicious I make the seemingly exact same play by playing my premium draw straightforwardly and passively. This second time, he might then pay me off because of this suspicion - only to get shown my obvious draw that has materialized. So, quite clearly you should make the plays in this order, not in the reverse order. Because if you make the obvious play the first time against someone who respects you, he will in all likelihood fold whenever you have hit. But if you then start making the tricky play later on, say after he has already folded once or twice in similar situations and thus may start to get a bit suspicious - you may get called exactly the times when you are bluffing. This is exactly the pattern that happens to weak players: at first, they are scared to make a play or go for a bluff, and thus wait patiently for the nuts. Then, once they have made this nuts two or three times in a row to receive no action, they start thinking: “Geez, this is so easy, and I get so much respect. I might start trying this with nothing, as a bluff.” But they forget that their opponents who have seen them win a few pots with out a fight, will start to get a bit suspicious about this picking up pots uncontested - and thus are likely to start calling exactly once the weak player decides to go for his smart move. Needless to say, this is the exact opposite of how one should be balancing bluffs and value bets. The plays were made in the wrong order, without taking into account how the opponents would assess these patterns of play - two cardinal sins in shorthanded play.
